Common defence will be an important pillar of Italy’s future. Whilst being a part of the European Union, Italy can and must again have a dialogue and direct partnership with the USA and the other countries mentioned above. Going beyond the imminent European projects, the association aims to identify long-term strategies for sectors like dual satellite systems, the aerospace industry (loosening ties with France), the navy and the more traditional fixed-wing sector. These are just a few examples.
At the Davos 2022 Summit, a whole day was dominated by Ursula von der Leyen. The President of the Commission addressed two hot topics: energy and arms and a single defence policy for the EU. In the first case, she ruled out the possibility of coming to an agreement about banning imports of Russian oil. But we are interested in the second point. The war in Ukraine is not only a reaffirmation of NATO but, for the people in charge in Brussels, it is an unexpected opportunity to implement the European Defence Community project that was rejected in the 1950s by France. It is no coincidence that Von der Leyen stated openly that “NATO is the world’s strongest alliance and will always be so. And the EU will never be a military alliance”. But she said that she was fully convinced that Europeans “must be able to take care of our defence and be able to act if necessary”.
She then went on to say that “as a former minister of defence I know how important interoperability between armed forces is” so that “there are no longer 17 different types of tank or fighter jets” in the armies of the EU but “one or two, because this allows us to make economies of scale, work together on missing parts and also exchange personnel who have been trained to drive and fly the tanks and planes” she went on to say, concluding with the words: “We are setting up a platform in the European Union to direct and guarantee a joint tender approach to deal with the huge investments that we shall need”. The message operated at two different levels. The news of munitions sent to Ukraine led listeners to believe that stores were being emptied and would soon have to be refilled. But in reality, nobody, including Italy, touched the stores of the operating units.
This ambiguity is matched by the launching of new projects and new weapons that will not be operational before 2027, the date of the next European Defence Fund budget. In other words, it explains why the platform to which Von der Leyen refers is not useful now but will serve to initiate a more complex path in synergy with national investments and probably between 2027 and 2035 with the development of what is today known as CARD, the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence, and is used as a statistical instrument. Tomorrow, it may have direct budgets to manage and enable the EU to make the leap forward to creating the common army. If we repeat the words of the Minister of Defence at the time, Sergio Mattarella during the war in Kosovo, and of the Undersecretary for Foreign Affairs, Umberto Ranieri, we realize that the goal of the push for common defence was political unity. In other words, unity through a single army. The missions in Albania and East Timor were supposed to be the test: go abroad without the assistance of NATO. Obviously, the clashes in Kosovo were not sufficient to upset equilibriums and we had to wait for the Russian invasion before trying to start the process of forging a common identity that monetary union had not achieved in 20 years.
The writer considers the defence industry to be fundamental to maintaining a country’s high technological standards and a skilled well-paid workforce. Now that the wheels for rearmament have started rolling, we still need to ask ourselves what Rome’s role will be. If it follows the path taken by the space industry, we risk having to buy the armament projects chosen by other nations. Will our major industries be players? For missiles, the EU will certainly use projects like Twister where our country is well represented thanks to MBDA, but when it comes to the joint tank or the sixth-generation fighter plane, where do we come into the picture? And European frigates? In just a few months, industrial contracts may be decided that will impact the next two decades of the Italian industry. There is a host of topics and they concern defence electronics and the development of dual technology that is a half-way house between civilian and military applications. In May 2022, whilst attending the EU Council, Italy’s premier Mario Draghi fed journalists a very pertinent comment on the principle of reciprocity.
“If someone buys arms from the USA it’s because certain weapons are not made in other parts of the world. The direction of these flows is dictated by technological considerations, strategic considerations, diplomatic relations, forging alliances, there are such a lot of things to consider”, Draghi said. But “if one of our suppliers prevents exports from another European country from entering then the European Union should consider not importing from that country”. For the first time, in fact right after the EU decision to start joint military purchases, someone in Rome said a word to the wise. Neither Fincantieri nor Leonardo have problems of reciprocity with the USA. Leonardo recently signed a contract to supply helicopters to the US Ministry of Defence. Fincantieri makes frigates for the US Navy and Coast Guards. Some people took this message as a hint to prevent the French undermining the principle of reciprocity. Germany, the USA and Italy therefore need to fine tune the next joint projects. And Rome must remain equally close to its traditional partner, the UK.
The model can work only if the areas of responsibility are defined. Otherwise, we are just left with words. In order to return to a NATO that is even more American, we have to maintain our technology and our mediation with North Africa and the Middle East. At the same time, solid alliances with France and Germany will be safeguarded. For when things go wrong. History in fact teaches us that when spheres of influence change entire areas are destabilised. People living close by suffer but they can also benefit. It happened in Syria. And the beneficiary was Recep Erdogan, who with the blessing of the US revived the dream of a Mediterranean empire. It happened in Libya and we have seen how much Italy suffered. It will probably occur in Ukraine. It is better to be prepared.
In this context, Copasir will play an increasingly important role in trying to navigate between military security, dual technology, technology that is only apparently civilian, the role of China and the role of France through the Quirinal Treaty. In 2022, an impressive 120-page report was distributed. In the Copasir report, the Committee for the Security of the Republic addresses the topic of putting our country back on the world map. It is no coincidence that the Committee chaired by Adolfo Urso recommended Italy’s joining the Five Eyes in the future to gain a more central position. Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance whose members are Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA. The document certainly implies that such a path would not be easy (the attempt to extend this alliance to other countries like Germany, Japan, India and South Korea seems to have been abandoned). “In any case” the report opines, “in the Committee’s opinion, this is a question that should be monitored closely to enable Italy to play a leading role”. Reading between the lines, we understand that the abandonment of the project will leave European partners freer to integrate intelligence services and defence.
“With regard to the fear that reinforced European defence may come into conflict with the action of NATO” the report states that “it must be emphasised that an EU that is capable of taking decisions freely and of operating in accordance with its values, protecting its interests and priorities, will strengthen the Atlantic Alliance itself by contributing to global security”. “Italy”, the document goes on to say, “can play an important part in achieving this goal: reinforcing the European initiative to reinforce NATO”. In this regard, Copasir suggests a two-pronged approach: engagement in the United Nations and the revival of the bilateral partnership “to reinforce Libyan institutions”.
Another analyzed dossier is the Ukrainian crisis. The Committee urges concrete steps and calls on Europe to take on a more decisive role. “The Russian aggression, supported by Belarus, against Ukraine and on the eastern flank of the Atlantic Alliance is certainly to be condemned but Europe still has a great need to keep the channels of diplomatic dialogue open”. Copasir accordingly hopes that the old continent can play an active role “in essential issues like the control of conventional weapons, nuclear non-proliferation and all the activities connected to hybrid threats”.
One section of the report is also dedicated to China, which is defined as a “strategic adversary”: the focus is on Beijing’s activism in different areas of the world, from Africa to Afghanistan. “The objective of global supremacy in the technological, economic and also military fields that is pursued by China as a long-term aim seems to be achievable over the coming decades” according to the document. The Committee also reiterated the need for energy security in order to weather international turbulence: energy security “is a crucial part of a general strategy of defence of the national interest”. In this connection it is interesting to note that the start of the report makes a submission to parliament. “Although previous annual reports have provided undoubtedly important analyses and evaluations, […] it seems strange and at the same time concerning that there has been no actual follow-up in the upper and lower chambers of parliament through the development of a debate that must be deemed to be fundamental and necessary when the crucial salus rei publicae is at stake”. This “dressing down” was also reflected in the Quirinal Treaty. On page 21, “Copasir considers that it should be pointed out that before signing the Memorandum on the Silk Road the Government involved Parliament in a preliminary review of national security aspects that were affected but this prior involvement did not occur in the case of the Quirinal Treaty”.
In addition, in dealings between Rome and Paris, the Committee seems to warn of German ambitions by asking for “suitable protection of strategic Italian financial and industrial assets”. The Treaty was signed immediately after the new German government under Olaf Scholz was installed. It was literally signed immediately afterwards, as if to say that Berlin will not get preferential treatment with the ECB and with the Commission. But the Treaty was also signed two months before the election of the new Italian head of state. It will be important to monitor all the stages of dialogue outside Parliament and the joint Franco-Italian Committees monitoring that multilateral agreements are not overridden and that no fast tracks are created to prevent transparent sharing with all stakeholders.
