Beyond the individual military missions and the formalities between departments, it is clear that the numerous flags placed in the Sahel should be used to re-tie the threads and try to recover the ground lost in Libya also due to the errors of previous political management. The time is right.
The change of pace in the White House between Donald Trump and Joe Biden has come in handy for those seeking to make Italy’s Atlantic role a little more solid, without however losing sight of the future of the EU common defense. We do not know if there will be no more US soldiers in the area but we do know that Africom will remain operational. And we will be able to boast privileged relationships. A board game within a European project that sees the African question as a single whole. But which at the same time leaves us free to look to the US as direct interlocutors. And not just in the Sahel. But also in Iraq and also in Lebanon. In Mosul, on the outskirts of the Mediterranean, it will be up to us to take over from the Americans in the management of the NATO mission which will have the task of ensuring that the Islamic State is not reformed.
Where the responsibility for the mission has passed to our military. A task that was relaunched, albeit indirectly, by the recent visit of Pope Bergoglio who, where the statues of the Madonna had been beheaded, returned to plant the Cross. A very important signal for Catholicism and Christianity, and which is now possible because the land in recent years has been cleared of soldiers’ amphibians. After all, we hope that history will repeat itself perhaps in reverse. And over time, the Christian presence in the area can be recovered, which the killing of Tariq Aziz, the old minister of Saddam Hussein, contributed to annihilate.
But we hope the wind in the sails for military diplomacy does not stop there. Italy has long been in command of the UN mission in Lebanon. Hearing of the withdrawal of an Indonesian ship and of Beijing’s request to send its own frigate off the coast of Lebanon, “Minister Guerini stepped forward”, “to put forward the candidacy of an Italian ship. Since the responsibility of the mission is tricolor, it is difficult to imagine being said no, “reported a newspaper article. The signal to the US was clear. Far be it from us to think that in the future the Navy could extend to Taiwan, but in the meantime it means ensuring that the Chinese eye does not intrude where the waters of the Mediterranean are already turbulent. On the one hand Turkey and on the other the interests of Egypt and the French thrust. Chinese ships have already passed through those parts and also in Morocco in 2013. In Djibouti, where there is our logistic base, the Chinese also anchored to better observe the Horn of Africa. But that’s not the same thing.
In the slice of sea between Egypt, Cyprus and Israel pass submarine pipes, sensitive information in addition to gas. This is a fundamental point if you want to draw the dots and make sure that the dots connect the dots from Iraq to the border with Algeria and recover all the ground lost after the ouster of Muhammar Gaddafi in Tripoli. It remains a piece to be filled in. His name is Abdel Fattah Al Sisi and lately he has frequented the Elysée a lot. Which, unlike us, keeps military affairs and civil rights issues well separated. Entrusting the fate of the country even more to military diplomacy can be the right lever for growth. The right model to be a strong NATO partner and at the same time constructive and active players within the EU defense landscape, all still to be evaluated and built.
Finally, it should also not be overlooked that a certain ideological environmentalism has repeatedly wished to focus attention almost exclusively on investments related to renewable energy: which, attention, is not wrong in itself, but it is an operation that – as in the case of gas – it cannot ignore geopolitical considerations. Some of the technologies needed for renewable energy sources are in fact linked to rare earths: elements that are currently largely under the control of the People’s Republic of China. These are aspects that must be clear. The theme of energy cannot be read only through the lens of the environment or the economy, but also – if not above all – through those of geopolitics and national security: a necessity, this, also underlined by Copasir in one of its reports. of January 2022.
Indeed, it is only in this way that the risk of vulnerability towards hostile powers can be reduced and that a more autonomous foreign policy can consequently be pursued. It is true that the European Commission recently presented RePower EU: an energy plan that would aim to make the EU independent from Russian gas. However, this is a belated move, without considering that such independence would not be possible for five years. This further demonstrates how, on the energy sovereignty front, the last two European Commissions have proved inadequate and fundamentally unable to address this dossier through a geopolitical approach. It is therefore necessary to act promptly on multiple levels.
A third front to be carefully considered is that of the EastMed gas pipeline: the project, which seemed to have stalled, has returned to the fore due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This work would connect Israel to Cyprus and, after arriving in Greece, would reach Puglia through the Poseidon pipeline. It is clear that, in addition to ensuring considerable diversification in energy supply, this project would offer a further advantage: the supply of gas would in fact take place in the context of a network of countries in which democratic systems exist. This is a factor that would significantly reduce the risk of energy pressures and blackmail for geopolitical purposes. Obviously, three related aspects must be kept in mind.
Italy should seriously start wondering about the possibility of opening up to fourth generation nuclear power. We should also recall that, thanks to nuclear energy, France has suffered less repercussions than other countries from the recent European sanctions on Russia. All this obviously does not mean that renewable energies should be neglected. However, it must be borne in mind that the concept of “sustainability” should not only have an environmental value but also a geopolitical one. As mentioned, renewables are often connected to rare earths, which – according to Copasir – are “extracted almost exclusively in Africa and controlled for the most part by Chinese players”. Moreover, we recall that, according to the US Geological Survey, in 2019 China was responsible for 80% of imports of these elements worldwide. We must therefore be extremely careful to avoid that, while we rightly try to reduce European energy dependence on Russia, that of the People’s Republic of China increases: that People’s Republic which, among other things, has very close political and economic ties with Moscow. In this sense, it is necessary to prevent the creation of new energy dependencies, which risk producing pernicious impacts from a geopolitical point of view. In this respect, a safe renewable source for Italy could be hydropower: a sector that should therefore be protected and strengthened.
All this shows how the crux of energy sovereignty concerns the West as a whole: a West that must understand the risks of its dependence on the Sino-Russian axis. In this sense, it is good that Italy does not get caught unprepared. In other words, it is imperative that Rome abandon all ideological ambitions, favoring a geopolitical approach. The challenge is to differentiate the energy supply, thus increasing its autonomy. It goes without saying that such an objective can be fully achieved only by relaunching the international role of our country: a relaunch that should mainly concern the Mediterranean area and which should take place with a view to urgently strengthening NATO’s southern flank.
